Step 9 - History



FAMILIARIZE YOURSELF WITH THE HISTORICAL RISKS AND RETURNS OF INDEXES

Long-term data is required to improve the estimates of the expected risk and return for different investments. We now have 81 years of monthly risk and return data on several important indexes. Since you cannot predict the future based on a small sample of recent events, the study of long-term stock market data is the only source of meaningful information and the resulting probability distributions of the expected risk and return of investments.

 

 

The groundbreaking discoveries achieved by Nobel-prize winning economists are the springboard for IFA’s investing strategies. Implementing the important risk diversification methodologies set forth by Markowitz, Sharpe and Miller — the fathers of Modern Portfolio Theory, IFA’s Index Portfolios expand upon their legendary achievements.

IFA’s 20 Index Portfolios are constructed according to the important empirical research of Eugene Fama and Kenneth French. The two now renowned economists made the groundbreaking discovery that more than 90% of stock market returns come from exposure to three specific risk factors: market, size and value.

The chart below illustrates the impact of size and value investing across global asset classes. In the chart, you see 82 years of history for U.S. Large and Small Capitalization Stocks, 27 years of history for Non-U.S. Developed Markets and 20 years for Emerging Markets. Across each asset class represented here, we see that small and value carry greater risk and return characteristics for each time period shown. Fama and French’s discovery of the significant increase in risk and return for small and value enables institutional investors to isolate those specific risk factors in specific indexes to achieve higher expected returns that are commensurate with their designated risk capacity.

 

 

Additional Charts and Graph from Step 9


Step 9
IFA Indexes Time Series Construction
F9-1
IFA Indexes Time Series Construction
Annual Returns of 16 Indexes
T9-1
Annual Returns of 16 Indexes
Total US Stock Market, Large Value and Growth, and Small Value and Growth
F9-2
Total US Stock Market, Large Value and Growth, and Small Value and Growth

F9-2A
Relationship Between Equity REturns and Economic Freedom


F9-2B
Risk vs Reward for 18 Developed Countries
 
F9-2C
Equity Returns According to Economic Freedom Rank

F9-2D
Government Intervention and Stock Returns
Market Turmoil and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
T9-2
Market Turmoil and the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Size and Value Indexes Around the Globe: Annualized Return and Standard Deviation
F9-3
Size and Value Indexes Around the Globe: Annualized Return and Standard Deviation
Risk and Return of Various Indexes
F9-4
Risk and Return of Various Indexes
  Various Asset Class Returns
T9-3
Various Asset Class Returns
Fama/French, IFA, and Other Indexes - Annualized Rates of Return
T9-4
Fama/French, IFA, and Other Indexes - Annualized Rates of Return
Private Equity Strategies
T9-5
Private Equity Strategies

F9-A
Percentage of Loss and Gains Required for Full Recovery

F9-B
Portfolio 70 Returns
 
F9-C
Probability of Portfolio 70

F9-D
Probability of Portfolio Recovery
Correlation Matrix of 15 IFA Indexes
F9-5
Correlation Matrix of 15 IFA Indexes
Fama/French Three Factors
F9-6
Fama/French Three Factors
Risk and Return of the Three Risk Factors
F9-7
Risk and Return of the Three Risk Factors
  Fama/French and IFA US Index Returns
F9-8
Fama/French and IFA US Index Returns
Growth of $1,000 in Various Indexes Over 80 Years
F9-8B
Growth of $1,000 in Various Indexes Over 80 Years


T9-A
IFA Indexes: Value vs Growth - 70years


T9-B
IFA Indexes: Value vs Growth - 31years


T9-C
IFA Indexes: Value vs Growth - 30years
 

T9-D
IFA Indexes: Value vs Growth - 80years

F9-9
Index Vs Chart
History of the Size Effect
F9-10
History of the Size Effect
   
  IFA Index Portfolio 90 Returns Matrix over 35 Years
F9-11
IFA Index Portfolio 90 Returns Matrix over 35 Years